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Cal’s Corner: Election Day Predictions

2:17 PM EDT on June 25, 2018

Greetings, Lost Oglers. While I still wait for Patrick to send me my $20 check, here are some predictions for some of the state-wide races on tomorrow's ballot:

1. Governor

After soberly studying all the campaign finance reports, here's my expert prediction about the Republican race for governor:

First: Cornett (Strong OKC, second place in Tulsa, third place in rural).
Second: Stitt (Strong Tulsa, second place in rural, third place in in OKC)
Third: Lamb  (Strong Rural second place finish in OKC, and third place in Tulsa).

Others. All below 5%, with Fisher edging Jones for 4th place. Richardson drops off the map.

As for the Democrats Drew Edmondson in a clear win, but Connie Johnson's pot patrol will give her a few more haze induced votes.

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2. Republican Lieutenant Governor. Although four elephants filed for this mostly ceremonial post, the contest comes down to current Corporation Commissioner Dana Murphy versus Republican strategist Matt Pinnell. Matt raised more real cash than Dana, although she was able to transfer $600,000 from her previous campaigns.

Murphy has received significant telecom and energy moola and therefore should win, but she won't. Party grassroots loyalists carry the day for Pinnell. Precinct busy bees beat out PAC pooh-bahs in this one. Ladies licking the envelopes actually care more about this post than suits in corner offices do. Makes sense. Second banana has nothing to sell to power brokers.

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3. Republican Attorney General.

The election features incumbent by appointment and man for all reasons Mike Hunter versus fighter pilot and bulldog lawyer Gentner Drummond. Both combatants have put personal money into the contest - $300,000.00 from Mike and $825,000.00 by the G-Man. Hmmm. This is for a job that pays $132,825, so it ain't about the salary. They hate each other and their TV spots confirm it. A month ago 80% of voters were undecided about this race. Media buys have solved that. F-16 driver beats alleged lifetime lobbyist (he wasn't and isn't, but that doesn't matter now) by more than six points.

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4. Republican Labor Commissioner

If there is nothing like a woman scorned, how about two? Leslie Osborn, lawmaker from Mustang, and Kathy Costello, wife of deceased Commish Mark Costello, are neck and neck for the nomination of this secondary, but important post.

Leslie's TV spots tout her courage in taking on the "bad ole boys" in the legislature, which cost her a key chairmanship, while Kathy promises reforms in mental health, a disease that's obviously taken a toll on her family. For Osborne to win, she'll have to close a current but narrow deficit. With SQ 788 on the ballot to boost turnout she may......... by a whisker.

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5. Republican Corporation Commissioner

FBI wire wearer Bald Anthony, the incumbent, versus former Senate Pro Tempore Brian Bingman, a man best remembered in the legislature for making few enemies........because he did few things.

Look, Brian needs a job, works as a land man for a small oil company in Tulsa, and will do what he is told to do by the energy czars just like his time in the legislature. Bald Anthony will remind everyone he is the wire man who took down Southwestern Bell and sent former Corp Com bribe taker Bob Hopkins to the slammer. That ancient saga has elected Anthony for decades and will again. The heir of Anthony's defunct store chain will win in a walk.

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6. SQ 788

Pot heads versus puritans. The sick versus their docs. Millennials at war with worry wart Boomers. The result? SQ 788 becomes law by about 53% to 47%. Outcome: Most everybody rolls several and cancels family vacation in Estes Park, Colorado. Rafts Little Sahara Desert instead. Thinks it's the Illinois River.

Cal Hobson is a former State Senator. At least we think he is. 

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