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Hi there, everyone! I hope everyone had a great Christmas.Ā This week instead of trying to decipher what Dean Blevins has to say, we're going to try and re-create the run-up to yesterday's Oklahoma City Christmas "snowstorm."
The weather week started off as it should, with Lord Gary England announcing that there may be a Winter Weather Event. Smartly, he refused to make a definitive prediction.
Oklahoma: LIke really windy & cold Thu morn. Christmas storm still in the plans but timing and intensity not firmed up yet.. Jump Back!
— Gary England (@garyeOK) December 20, 2012
Like the wise man that he is, Lord Gary would not weigh in on the storm again before Christmas. The rest of the local weathermen, well... the same cannot be said for them. They let the hype begin:
Channel 25's Jon Slater thought we could see a blizzard.
Rick Mitchell's replacement at Channel, 5, Damon Lane, teased the snowfall as close to record-breaking.
Projected snowfall amounts for Christmas day.Most snow ever on Christmas day to fall in OKC 6.5" #okwx pic.twitter.com/Z00OQjVy
— Damon Lane (@KOCOdamonlane) December 23, 2012
His colleague Danielle Dozier agreed.
I can't believe we're having snow on Christmas!! Not just a little..ALOT! SO EXCITED! :) #OKwx
— Danielle Dozier News 19 (@DanielleDozier) December 24, 2012
On Christas Eve, Slater thought 6-8 inches sounded about right.
Damon Lane tweeted out a wacky model that had Enid getting 30 inches, but OKC less than 3.
The NAM model run.I'm only tweeting this out for fun.By no means am I expecting this to verify.#okwx pic.twitter.com/03bcVglK
— Damon Lane (@KOCOdamonlane) December 24, 2012
Rick Smith of the National Weather Service helpfully pointed out what was becoming apparent: no one had any idea what was happening.
You want 4 inches of snow? No snow? 3 feet of snow? There's a model for that. #okwx
— Rick Smith (@ounwcm) December 24, 2012
Next time I'll remember to listen to him.
Damon Lane decided it was time to firm up some predictions.
Today is a big day #okwx. Model data will iron out snow totals.We're about to get a good feeling on just how big this storm may be.
— Damon Lane (@KOCOdamonlane) December 24, 2012
Latest NAM model run,storm center goes a bit south,pulls snow max south too.#okwx pic.twitter.com/CPU1yRXH
— Damon Lane (@KOCOdamonlane) December 25, 2012
Oh yeah, and David Payne had shown us one model that had OKC getting 20 inches.
Hang on! Here's another nutty model for Xmas Day.The big bullseye over OKC is 20" of snow! One of many models to watch http://t.co/suI8MEO0
— David Payne (@tornadopayne) December 23, 2012
Steve Lackmeyer said what we were all thinking....
@tornadopayne David, David, David... you're at KWTV now... you don't have to do THIS anymore...
— Steve's OKC Central (@stevelackmeyer) December 23, 2012
And then David Payne decided 8 inches sounded about right.
New morning data for snow... This model giving Okc about 8" of snow... Shown in white... pic.twitter.com/K1RAaskk
— David Payne (@tornadopayne) December 24, 2012
Channel 4's Chase Thomason gave his Christmas forecast the morning of Christmas Eve. 3-6 inches!
Here are my snowfall predictions 4 tomorrows winter storm. I wouldn't be surprised if totals are higher. Stay 4Warned. pic.twitter.com/MY1Tqcsp
— Chase Thomason (@ChaseThomason) December 24, 2012
But updated it again before the day was over. 4-8 inches "will be common in and around OKC!"
I've updated our snow total map. Here is the latest forecast: 4"-8" will be common in and around Oklahoma City. #okwx pic.twitter.com/5K9LMqjh
— Chase Thomason (@ChaseThomason) December 24, 2012
But then Jon Slater said something ominous! The storm was changing directions!
Rusty McCranie still had faith we'd get a decent amount.
Latest models digested. Storm remains open (no closed low), will move fast. Can't see more than 3-6" in OKC, perhaps closer to 3".
— Rusty McCranie (@RMcCranieWFTV) December 25, 2012
And then, in the middle of the night, Jon Slater called it all off. There would be no White Christmas for Oklahoma City.
People were sad.
Heidi is not impressed with this "blizzard". http://t.co/fHdglkaH
— Carson Cunningham (@Carson_OKC) December 25, 2012
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Not very much snow. I have a thicker layer of powder sugar on my french toast than the white stuff outside my door.
— Liz Dueweke š« (@LizDueweke) December 25, 2012
Snowmageddon 2012. Lol. pic.twitter.com/2wLzguYS
— Abigail Ogle (@KOCOAbigail) December 25, 2012
Some of us were angry, and people called us out on it.
And that guy's right! We can't predict snowstorms well. But then again, it doesn't seem like the actual weathermen can either, at least not too reliably. And, more importantly, we don't run television commercials all the time about how awesome we are at predicting the weather and how amazing all our fancy equipment is and all the awards we've won for meteorology prowess.
Predicting the weather must be an incredibly hard job, and maybe snow in particular is tough. I'm sure all the local meteorologists do the best job they can, but next time around we should all be incredibly chastened before getting excited about a promised White Christmas.
Ho, ho, ho :(
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That is all for this week. Follow me on Twitter here. Good bye!