Last weekend, I got a text from an Ogle Mole asking me what I think about Democrat Jena Nelson’s chances to upset Republican Stephanie Bice in the upcoming race for the 5th Congressional District.
I forgot to reply, but my answer is “not a lot.”
That’s not a knock against Jena, but after Kendra’s blue-wave upset in 2018, the seat has been gerrymandered to all but secure a GOP victory and keep Oklahoma under deep red control through at least the next American Civil War.
Despite that gerrymandered assurance, and a lack of serious primary challengers, Stephanie Bice isn’t taking any chances.
In what smells like a planned, calculated — and, if so, kind of sheepish — play to show she’s not afraid to stand up to the ever-unpopular Donald Trump on topics that matter to indecisive purple voters, like human decency, she rebuked the president after he gleefully celebrated the violent murder of Rob Reiner:
I like to criticize Stephanie Bice for various things from time to time — hypocrisy, selling out to the rich, being a somewhat invisible, rank-and-file member of Congress who basically toes the GOP/MAGA party line — but kudos to her for having some courage and standing up to the deranged imbecile on this one. Seriously, what a lunatic.
Imagine being such a small, pathetic man that you find it necessary to celebrate the death of a beloved filmmaker who directed such ’80s classics as This Is Spinal Tap, Stand By Me, and The Princess Bride. Is Trump trying to lose the support of every Gen-X conservative alive!? That’s a bigger blunder than starting a land war in Asia!
Not surprisingly, one Oklahoma politician tried to defend the president’s dance on Reiner’s grave. Senator Markwayne “Dur-Hickey” Mullin:
When compared to Senator Markwayne, Stephanie’s really not that bad… right? She’s kind of become the Chili’s Southwestern Egg Roll of our congressional delegation. The food generally sucks and you don’t want to be there, but it’s the best thing on the menu and semi-tolerable.
Seriously, it’s nice to see someone from Oklahoma have a moral compass and call Trump out when he says stupid, inappropriate shit, instead of running out and unclogging his drain for him.
Well, at least that’s what I think Stephanie wants us to think.
Not surprisingly, a day or two after the tweet, The Oklahoman helped recognize her for it:
Once again, I know this feels like a blatant, choreographed pivot by Stephanie and her PR team, but I applaud her for it.
Sure, she’s just doing what it takes to win a race and further enrich her political career, but it takes political courage for a conservative to even slightly challenge Trump in today’s political climate — even when they’re doing so in the name of their own self-preservation.
I think Jena Nelson would agree:
Well, that escalated quickly!
So, back to that Mole’s question I referenced at the beginning — does Jena Nelson have a chance?
After a tight race in 2020, Bice secured 60% of the vote in the last two elections thanks to the gerrymandering. That gives her a pretty big cushion to absorb any Blue Wave tsunami that comes forth on election night. Even then, she and her team will have plenty of time to see the tsunami coming, fundraise, campaign, and continue to pivot toward that purple middle.
Anyway, those are kind of my early, off-the-cuff thoughts on it.
It will be interesting to see if Bice continues distancing herself from Trump on the campaign trail, and if there are any right-wing repercussions for it.
Until then, stay with The Lost Ogle. We’ll keep you advised.
