Prediction Markets Declare Debate Winner…

Gentner Drummond and Mike Mazzei faced off Monday night in the first – and apparently only – televised debate of the Republican gubernatorial runoff.

Neither candidate delivered what I’d call an Abraham Lincoln-level performance. Drummond stumbled through some of his prepared lines, while Mazzei frequently wandered away from the questions, retreated into the same old talking points and, at one point, even got testy with Amanda Taylor and her co-moderator.

Although that quip was funny, the highlight, however, had to be this exchange the two had over one of the dumbest centerpieces of the campaign – the hastily refunded donation Gentner’s wife made to Joe Biden in 2020.

Good stuff, huh?! If by good, you mean comically uncomfortable and weird.

For a serious recap of the debate, William H.P. Archibald Merriweather “Tres” Savage III & IV has one over at NonDoc. If that sounds like too tedious an exercise, you can also just take Mike Mazzei’s word for it that he won:

Yep, Mike Mazzei was the big debate winner… according to Mike Mazzei.

Unfortunately for him, the prediction markets reached a slightly different verdict.

Following the debate, Mazzei’s odds of winning the Republican nomination dropped from about 81% to 73% on Robinhood. That’s a pretty significant plunge for a candidate who supposedly just dominated his opponent, and it offers a decent clue as to who the people with actual money riding on the race thought really won.

If that graphic makes little to no sense to you, congrats. You don’t know anything about prediction markets and should consider yourself fortunate. If you do know something about them, though, you have to admit Drummond looks like a pretty enticing value bet.

Sure, Mazzei has Trump’s endorsement and remains the favorite, but my gut tells me Gent’s actual chances of winning are closer to 40% than 25%. He still has a tough hill to climb, but if he keeps making headlines by pandering to the far right – blocking a mosques here, arresting Fauci there – maybe he can overcome the Trump bump after all.

Seriously, in a Republican runoff where both candidates are racing to see who can move furthest to the right without falling off the map, why can’t Gentner win?

Not to go full The Fat Pat Betting Service here, but 25 cents feels awfully cheap for a guy willing to pander this hard.

Anyway, we covered a lot of ground, so let’s summarize:

• Mike Mazzei and Gentner Drummond debated, argued and exchanged hand gestures.

• Mazzei declared himself the winner.

• Prediction markets responded by shaving nearly 10% off his value.

• Drummond continues to pander to far right conservatives

• Fat Pat thinks Gent is a decent value bet at 25 cents a share.

Stay with The Lost Ogle. We’ll keep you advised.