TLO Election Night Predictions & Prognostications

Happy election day, Moles!

If you haven’t done so yet, please get out to the polls today and vote. Well, that is if you’re an informed citizen and have done a tad bit of research on the candidates and issues. Otherwise, you’re probably better of staying home and letting the grown-ups decide, as Kevin Stitt did from 1999 to 2016. If you ask me, the only thing worse than not voting is not really knowing who or what you’re voting for. It probably does more harm than good. 

This is the fourth gubernatorial-year election I’ve covered for The Lost Ogle, and it’s by far been the most fun, entertaining and lucrative one I've observed. This is probably because it’s the only one that’s been competitive! 

In 2010, 2014, and 2018, we essentially knew the results of the Governor's Race immediately after the general election field was set. But this time around, thanks to A) Kevin Stitt’s repeated gaffes and grifts, B) the politically foolish war he’s waged against our wealthy and powerful Tribal Nations, C) the aftereffects of the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision, and D) Democrats found a Republican to run against him, Democrats actually have a chance to win back the Governor's “Private Residence” for the first time since 2006!

In addition to being the most fun statewide election to cover, this has also been the most terrifying! What are we going to do for content if Stitt and Co. doesn’t win?! Just like Mary before him, Stitt’s provided a goldmine of content for us and the local media over the past 4 years. If Joy’s able to pull off an upset, let’s hope she follows the fine tradition of providing worthwhile political fodder and scandal for everyone to click and enjoy.

Anyway, before the polls close tonight, I thought it would be fun share to some final election night predictions and prognostications. They’re based on my observations, Ogle Mole Network Chatter and wishful thinking. 

Prediction: Stitt narrowly defeats Hofmeister by 1% point

According to FiveThirtyEight.com, Stitt has about a 92% chance of winning the election, but I even think Dean Blevins would say those percentage points are too high. I’d say it’s about a 60% probability, which is basically a toss-up. 

Ultimately, I’m picking Kevin to win because he’s a wealthy, white Republican male running for reelection against a woman in a super-red state during a midterm election when the President is an unpopular Democrat. 

“But Patrick! Joy’s leading in some polls!

That’s true. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Joy won, but ultimately, picking her to beat Stitt feels like picking OSU to beat OU in Bedlam during a year when the Cowboys are favored. Sure, the Pokes may have the better team and should come out on top, but OU has the tradition, history, and usually finds a way to win. 

Basically, I’ll believe Joy can beat Kevin Stitt when she actually beats Kevin Stitt... and Stitt and Co. are hopping on a plane the next day to vacation with Lincoln Riley in California. 

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Prediction: Carly Atchison crashes a dragon into the Joy Hofmeister watch party and takes out all the journalists

Regardless if Stitt wins or loses, I believe this will happen.

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Prediction: Jena Nelson edges Ryan Epic-Barresi Walters by 4%

This may seem to contradict my Stitt - Hoffmeister prediction, and it kind of does. Like Stitt, Ryan Walters is also a Republican man running against a woman in a super-red state during a midterm election when the President is an unpopular Democrat. 

That being said, Walters isn’t rich. He’s also almost universally hated by Oklahoma educators. In fact, the only one I could find who likes him is Rachel Morris. She and Ryan taught together at McAlester High School and were apparently BFFs.

I guess Walters had a hand in Ms. Morris winning McAlester's “Teacher of the Year” in 2016 (he was nice enough to inform her the night before) and again in 2022. I guess that’s why she leaves nice videos like this for the scammy non-profit he founded...

Anyway, I’m pretty sure Ms. Morris is the only teacher who will probably vote for Ryan. All the other ones, especially in rural areas, are almost going out of their way to beg friends and family to not vote for him. They know he’ll try to cut funding from rural schools and unleash right-wing culture war attacks on urban and suburban districts. Basically, he’ll find a way to make education in this state even worse. I think that push by teachers will have an effect, and Walters will lose.

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Prediction: Ryan Walters films SUV flog where he peels off his skin and reveals he’s actually Janet Barresi

Just like with Carly, I think this will happen regardless of tonight’s outcome. 

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Prediction: Kevin Calvey defeats Vicki Behenna by 6% in the Oklahoma County DA race

Although Republicans can’t gerrymander counties, I think Kevin Calvey has enough cash and GOP clout to pull off a victory over Vicki Behenna in the race for Oklahoma County DA. Although this will suck for the residents, employees and criminals of Oklahoma County, it will be really bad for all Democratic politicians. If you thought David Prater likes to wield the political power of this seat, just wait until the hyper-partisan right-wing culture-war fighting dude with the Flowbee cut gets put in charge. 

Prediction: Kevin Calvey’s daughter Anastasia writes a letter tonight to all Oklahoma Democratic Politicians announcing they’ve been indicted. 

Anyway, those are just a few predictions. I guess we’ll wait and see tonight if they come true or not. Stay with The Lost Ogle. We’ll keep you advised.